Forecast trust and accuracy

Forecast accuracy is being tracked

We are collecting verified outcomes before publishing reliability scores. Metrics will appear once there are enough nights to make them meaningful.

Reliability scores publish after enough verified nights are collected to avoid misleading small-sample claims.

Readiness: Tracking started

Sample window: More verified nights needed before publishing reliability scores.

Forecast freshness

Forecast date: 2026-07-13

Status: fresh

Last generated: 2026-07-14T03:57:37.169Z

7-day reliability

7-day accuracy: Pending

False go rate: Pending

False go nights: Pending

Average forecast error: Pending

Tracks nights that looked worth going but were later verified as poor.

Coverage + calibration

Verified outcome coverage: Pending

Evaluated rows: Pending

Verified coverage days: Pending

Conflicting source rate: Pending

Pending means the sample is still too small to publish responsibly.